Category: History


Jared Diamond..you are my hero ( except for explanation on Religion…read mine instead )

Geography explains more than politics ..history.Deterministic history.Now heres some evidence on the Chinese side….( a study of the gene map)

http://www.nature.com/news/1998/981015/full/news981015-9.html

In general, China is divided culturally into distinct northern and southern regions, with the dividing line falling, roughly, between the valleys of China’s two great rivers, the Huang Ho and the Yangtze. These cultural differences run deep. The northern region is ethnically and linguistically more homogeneous than the diverse south – differences that may be rooted in the more varied ecology and geography of southern China

Bear in mind the Eastern nations don’t have pensions that will cripple them.But China does have many bust State corporations …so a run on the banks might come one day.Essentially the West is’nt as rich as we think it is and this financial crisis is about the balance  coming back…ie we go down the ladder and  have to work harder.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/12/business/global/12pension.html?ref=global-home

Other countries have obscured their total obligations as well. In France, where the official debt level is 76 percent of economic output, total debt rises to 549 percent once all of its current pension promises are taken into account. And in Germany, the current debt level of 69 percent would soar to 418 percent.

Comically good pensions in Greece..unsustainable..The Germans have said as much…that they are not going to subsidize the Greeks so that they can retire early….:

He is a full-throated proponent of a system that pays him a yearly pension of 30,000 euros, or $41,000, more than he was making when he retired 13 years ago at the age of 60. He has even written a book in defense of it, “The Guide to Granting Civil Service Pensions in Greece.”

Aging populations everywhere except the Islamic countires should be a simple equation except that everyones afraid that the Hijab will be the end of the West.

But its this financial re-orientation that is going to cause that..not the Hijab.Russia ( Prince Rus once considered  having an Islamic state )..has a Muslim federacy of sorts already but its Muslim Populations are small in numbers .

We might get a de-population point where anybody with a pair of hands will be begged to migrate .Migration is going to go from hot potato to hot sell.Europe , West , Russia are going to become bakwaters without it.

The Population prophets of doom will be dead by then ..as they tend to be elderly Western folks . 

Equation changers will be life expectancy…if we get a pill to extend life..then we get better finances everywhere..more productivity .The balance of wealth will be restored to those that can live longer.

But of for the moment ..the momentum is downhill for the West.The East to follow closely behind.

The ME and Africa grow by default as a result rather than by design.

Heres a discussion about who is more evil….

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100026946/is-there-a-moral-difference-between-nazis-and-communists/

My thoughts….

Killing large numbers of people is not a unique trait for Nazis or Commies.

Killing an ethic group is not an innovation either.But the industrialization and commodification of the remians of Hitlers victims  is utterly unique and leaves me incredulous even today.

Evil is more than a numbers game.The Nazis crossed  a line that even they tried to keep quiet.

Corporations as countries

East saves too much because they have no Social security nets.

We did’nt…because we have Social security.

They have too much money …we borrow it cheaply.

Spend on fluffy toys and holidays.

We leave debt for children instead of security net.

To help upright the social security net..and its funding failure and failures to come…..

we import cheap labour to reduce our costs…instead of importing money…we import people.

We are balanced.

But we can’t extend the net to the new comers…..

So ..with new biometrics able to track anyone anywhere reliably…..you can be anywhere..receiving your social net or working anywhere helping the social nets of other people.

You become geographically undefined and economically aligned with Sovereign fund .

You become a member of an economic association and not a land.

A corporation or corporation like body will run the fund effieciently.

Countries will become companies.

Our evolution continues.

The hierarchies just get more evolved with every iteration.

Will happen after the security umbrella that nuclear weapons cheaply afford Developed states extends everywhere….so no security levy tax on anyone.

( NuNu Nations  Under a Nuclear Umbrella….Can I put myself humbly forward as the NuNu Guru .)

Which won’t be needed as land will not be needed rto be protected…

the new armed services will be Lawyers.

And Fukuyama’s End of history gets filed in the bin.

US to dominate ? on and on ?

My beliefs are geography rules.Its not the new Rock and Roll as the Economist puts it ( in Intelligent life article )…it always has been the King.

A huge land area de-populated by the diseases the Europeans brought with them …is a resource that is being utilized in way that Europe has already done to itself.

Give it 200 years and a population density of Europe and then we can compare like for like.But for the moment ….great Political governance is why the US strengthens through the centuries  while Brazil is just catching up ( being in the same boat …under populated land mass ripe for exploitation and growth).

On Thomas Barnetts weblog..I remember reading that the brutal economics of bringing commodities to market ..created a ruthlessly efficient and robust market economy in the US …..whereas ..in Brazil…it was about resource exploitation only ( by the ruling classes) and creating an underclass to mine it / cut it / ship it.

Smaller weaker  Middle classes , no need to educate poor people  and a smaller less sophisticated  indigenous demand centre ( the local market for local goods) = South America ( Brazil prototypical of this….Chile the exception ).

This NYT article has a nice ramble over the perspective of some historians .

Has some great lines  

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/25/opinion/25brendon.html

past is a map, not a compass

Rome was overwhelmed by barbarians whereas America’s armed forces are so powerful as to prompt dreams of what is known in military doctrine as “full spectrum dominance.”

That last quote about Security….is about Geography again.Rome in the US would have been untouchable as well…the Pacific and the Atlantic and Canadians are a cheap defence barrier.

The Brits fought 2 wars that were paid for with an empire…the US price for saving Europe’s bacon was  for them to help the US expand its markets ( ditch those empires……   empires = closed markets ) …

A mulitpolar world is the most likely outcome…( after seeing Bush and his unipolar madness….maybe thats a good thing )

Whose an Arab now?

Watching a program called  Meet the ancestors on the BBC and they examined the DNA of man from bones found from a medieval grave.He was from Syria.Not an Arab ..a  Syrian.Saying that an Englishman from way back was an Arab was probably more than the viewers can take handle.

Being an Arab is an emotive term now…as if no one wants to be one even though plenty are.Southern Italians are plenty Arab as are Sicilians  and the Maltese and other Mediterranean places ( Spain) .The jews themselves in Europe were essentially a community of Arabs

Irsael is a strange recent one…where nearly half the immigrants were Arabs and considered themselves Arabs until they got to Isreal and decided it was better to drop that part of their Jewish identity as it did’nt chime with times.

Jesus is an Arab . Christainity and Judaism and Islam have Arabs for prophets…….OK thats stretching a bit now ( a bit only..a very little bit  )…but Arab is a plastic container within which semitic people move in and out of nowadays .Egyptians moved into it , jews moved out.

Its really a language based semitism and nothing else.Because if Arabs are genetically determined..then they have a larger footprint then most people care to know.

When you hear   semites ( Isrealis ) telling other semites ( Palestinianans) that they should go and live with the semites ( Arabs )   , supported  by Aryans organised by semitic religions , explaining that  they had a semite state ( Israel ) here before ( 2000 years ago ) and thats those semites ( Palestinans ) should’nt be there , even though the semite state of the Palestinians pre-dates the semite state of Israel by a wide margin of centuries.

 Arab is an ethnicity and the Mediterranean basin should be considered their homeland  because thats where they all are..whether some  care . to admit it or not.Arabs in Marseille as as natural as the Nords on the Shetland Islands..and likewise…finding Europeans  anywhere along the Mediterranean rim is just as natural ….( Israel).

Religion evolution

Waffly post by me from elsewhere

http://brainblogger.com/

Heres a narrative…religion as a conditioner and agency for stressed family groupings (higher densities)

Religion positively promotes and is initially created by close proximity living…such as Caves , or in resource dense areas that can sustain higher densities.
The child is denied free will and has to succumb to a hierarchy through intense parental subjugation.
The loss of free will is compensated by a population that can bear to live much more closely to each other .Emotional outbursts from close living could increase violations of the moral codes. Moral codes ( being innate )are re-ratified through taboo and ritual.That inner repressed self is allowed to burst out / channelled towards a ‘parent God – sinful child who can become good ‘ narrative…the inner child can re-channel the damage done by the branding done by the parent by loving an outer parent…invisible …but very apt for a love that was lost in childhood and kept unconscious.( invisible itself )…
The upshot is higher densities , stratified societies.Very sucessful.So sucessful that they can sustain Atheism…a reaction against that parental authority paradigm or just open defiance from individuals who have a need to express their non- belief….only possible in societies that have grown beyond the sustenace of the religion paradigm and are generating new paradigms.
But when societies fail…its religion that comes back.
We see reason everywhere as we move away from childhood .We serialise , intentionalise everything.
The kernel of emotional damage is never fully assimilated and we are forever projecting it outwardly…so our emotions become to flavour the outer world as they are left orphaned within us….
So we see intentionality in animals and the Sun and rain…..
The inner damage also causes us to seek more security amonsgt each other and that positively re-inforces the hierarchy.
The left brain -right brain hierarchy is the first hierarchy that is the cornerstone .The parent affects the emotional right side and effects changes in the left brain…hence re-inforcing a naturally occuring hierarchy.The right brain spills over into the outer world and the left brain channels new explanations that help it cope ( intentionalizing the inanimate..idols..sun moon….and the animate….animals ) .
Those that are left feeling insecure from the parental ‘conditioning’ seek more security and become ‘conservatives’….those that have a more fluid relationship with both cerebral hemispheres ..can become liberals.Those that have an emotional sides that career wildly within ..uncontainable by the left brain..are potential prophets.
Smaller religious societies require a higher proportion of rightwingers.When they get incredibly sucessful…they need liberals to occassionaly steer them onto novel or new paths ( social democracies).
Sorry if it bit waffly.

SECOND POST

Javaid Akhtar
February 01, 2010 | Permalink

This is my angle ..

Hunter Gatherers have the lightest density footprint and have a flat hierarchy , little or no religion and a looser or no specific bonding between children and parents( unstratified) .They are the baseline of our evolution.
Tribes have lineages ( requires a strong child-parent bond) and require alot of co-operation ,leadership , division of clans = hierarchy ) to compete with other tribes ( high population density) .Hunter Gatherers skim of the landscape and can only exist in a low density pattern.

The Toba event caused the population worldwide to decrease synchronously 60k years ago
and the population increases thereafter synchronised the rise of religions/civilisations
to the last 30k years as population densities recovered.

The first border war we fight as individuals is for the personal/self space we feel that
is ours.An authority figure will puncture this space and demand modulation to your behavioural
output ( the same pathway that makes you vunerable to hypnotherapy in later life…I’m sure Hunter
Gatherers are not hypnotizable ).This involves a loss of self and a gain for the larger group.
The benefits to the larger group eventually accrue back to the individual..which is why religion is so sucessful..This border skirmish is usually a singular event and the parent always win .They are larger physically ( as is God) , all powerful as compared to the child ( as God is), and can punish and withhold their love…all attributes of Gods.
If the insecurity of that breach causes you to seek more security , you are a right -winger ( good for the group).
If it causes some insecurity but only enough for you to despise the cause of the insecurity..
you will become a revolutionary , anarchist anti-authoutarian personality ( no good for
the group).If the insecurity leaves you in neither camp..you can empathise both ways ..you become a
liberal.
If you seek spirituality from a sense of weakness within..you will seek the comfort of the
the establised ‘ church’.This is a religious person in the fullest sense ( a follower , never a prophet)
A spiritual person …has a sense that the locus of the events that matter in a religious sense…are
within them selves..( quite correctly) and not in institutions..more the individual.
These people are irrelevent to the group hierarchy but become nucleators when a large grouping needs to re-align and politically re-define itself.These spiritiual nucleators are always around , but at oppurtune times , the larger group will re-orient itself using a nucleator …a new prophet is born.

The left+up vs the right+down arena of the brain and the relationship of these two are the backbone
for this interplay .

3rd post

I was going by Alan MacFarlane’s description of Hunter Gatherer societies.( less to no religion ..less to no heirarchy …both not characteristics of large scale societies)
I’ve tried an overall wide arc-ing view.Its not binary choices anywhere along the line…
but I expect less religion in early populations as density decreases and religion as positively present in every large scale/ high density grouping.
We evolved under the environmental pressure of other human beings ( we were the environment ) ..so even under conditions 150k + years ago..we had already been exposed to population pressure.( smaller bodies but stable brain sizes indicate that) .But its close proximity living that causes religion.
And religion itself then helps close proximity living.
After a certain tipping point..the Religious memes would have fought each other into existence ( less organised Tribal , Hunter Gatherers get swept aside )..leaving aside a meme ( religion ) that is propagating itself.

Religious groupings are the next step up on the ladder for Tribal societies.
Thats why for Somalia /Afghanistan to progress..they need a period of quiet developement under a religious hierachy before they could create the stability to re-create a transformational merchant /industrial caste.
They seem to be just lingering on the tribal step of the ladder and I don’t see development or strength to withstand outside influence under a tribal structure ..which they are still under.

Europe is a sub-continental piece of Asia like India or China.

India and China grew into empires covering the largest possible area that the geography and human invention could stand.

Europe tried its best to follow in the same evolutionary pathway …but never succeeded.Nobody really ruled the whole of Europe .The geography was always against it , unlike in India and China.The Mediterranean basin was a more likely  cohesive subunit which did  fare better but still did’nt continue too far down through history ( the Romans).

Europe’s failure to distill into a single unit created  an age of continual warfare that fed technological innovation and caused the fight to spill over into other parts of the unsuspecting world ( Africa Asia America …everywhere else) .

This is basically Jared Diamonds view of European history ….just a narrative that the geography lends itself too.

Their roles are zilch…zero…nothing.

Here’s my argument.

It goes back to the cross shaped trade routes that intersected in the Middle East and had China/Indies/Africa/Europe as the corners.

Trading and travelling over such distances was quite a dangerous undertaking and there would have been many areas where praying for a safe  journey would have salved the soul.

Just by the simple geometry of a cross..the middle bit would have had the greatest flow and transit of praying /thanksgiving merchant-traders.Therefore the richest prayer houses would have concentrated over in the ME ( Middle East).Prophets..great individual human beings…who can lead people and inspire with spiritual rheteoric oocur all the time all over the place.But  the ones that are going to get the most ‘footfall’  &  ’play’  time are the ones situated in the eye of the cross ( yep..thats it ..the ME) and not at the nodes.

This process will continue as long the trade route remains in that structure.Therefore…after Christainity…Islam was bound to just follow in its footstepd and travel all over the nodes that it itself had previously followed.It would then have fragemented just like Christainity did ( Eastern vs Catholic vs Protestants )  previously according to local political spheres of interest. But Islam did’nt.

Why?

 

Because the trade route structure was short circuited by Christopher Columbus.This was inevitable because at this node…Europe..rough sea necessitated strong ships and poor geology ( lacking in items to trade) caused them to poke around for a short circuit.

Everything that happened ..would have happened.And even if it did’nt…it would’nt make any difference.Religions are like different coloured team shirts..the colour itself does’nt cause Football or Rugby to take place…they just happen to be markers and nothing more.

Geography is the real key

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