Posted by me on the Economist website
AQ are like Venture Capitalists for any muslim grouping that has its back to the wall.
The bargain includes many freebies like foreign ‘ plug and play’ fighters and a Faustian pact that unfortunately includes an Ebola like political agenda in the small print.
In the short term though…in a very Darwian way….religious groups will always trump tribal groups as it always has done in human history.
So bets are on Shahab in the short run….other iterations of religious groups in the long run.Tribes and clans are never going to get above this unless they find another way of organising themselves and a bigger better sugar daddy .Very unlikely.
So the show goes on.
Another more salient point….
Globalization is like Jupiter (or like giant gear wheels ..I call Jupiter class powers…US USSR China Europe …and lesser but up and coming Jupiters..India and Brazil…..they crush and will crush any contra-rotating forces ) ..crushing the nursery that is Religion.All religious start-ups are cranky ..it helps with discipline and loyalty in the uderclasses. But in this Globalized world…you can’t get away with making enemies ..
Tribal societies need the religious rung of the organisational ladder …to create stability..as a stepping stone upwards….
In this Globalized world..that is no longer possible…Hence the Taliban and the Somali twin…would have worked 50 years ago…but not today.These baby tribal societies need to run quickly..because they ar’nt going to get a crawling stage in which to develop and strengthen.
So what kind of stage will there be…..Somalia and Afghanistan are the largest tribal societies probably in the world…..I think there is a clue here.This itself could be the cause of their failure.But how did they last so long ?
Are they the gaps between the Jupiter wheels that could’nt mesh together ( Russia and Brittania in the Great Game ) …but that do mesh now?..Held previously in suspension between India and Pakistan in the recent past was another version of the Great Game.
The only Game in town is now Globilization.You can’t go it alone .
My only guess is that Somalia and Afghanistan would benefit from being broken up and turned into geographical units that represent the unit ethnic groups…allowing them to compete under a security umbrella by outside powers.
One power patron per ethnic grouping.That way they can compete and learn from other without wasting time /money / lives on competing for resources.
